WWDC 2009 Predictions
I was going to write an entire, exhaustive post about what I feel will be announced tomorrow at WWDC, but after reading John Gruber’s post at Daring Fireball, I’m convinced that he’s basically right about everything. There’s only one point I’d like to address that I’m going to directly contradict: his iPhone predictions.
It seems everyone is in an uproar about a new iPhone, apparently named 3GS, but I’m not convinced at all. For one, I think that Steve wants to put Apple on a two-year product release cycle—or at least something similar. It seems very intensive to release a major product line upgrade every year and frankly, Apple has failed to do that with all of their products—there’s no reason to start now. Two years makes sense because then everyone who purchased the 3G would be eligible for an upgrade. Sure, for the previous two years Apple has released a new product in the line, but that’s because the original iPhone just didn’t cut it—Apple needed the 3G.
I also don’t think it seems very Apple-like to release a new product and then sell out the existing stock at a lower price. In fact, that seems very contrary to Apple’s established panache. I’m not even entirely convinced yet that Apple will make multiple lines of the iPhone. Maybe to some it’d make sense, but given the relative failure of the Mac Mini, I think Apple will try to stay as far away from such a concept as possible. Maybe something like the iPod Mini. It’s possible that something similar to the iPod Touch will be produced. Imagine just an iPod Touch with cellular capabilities. That I could buy, but not for at least another generation (the iPhone line still need to mature a bit, I think).
I do think that the necessary upgrades that Gruber mentioned (more RAM, more storage, iPhone video recording and maybe some extras such as a frontal camera) will be included in the next update, which I imagine will be released at next year’s WWDC. I imagine that Apple wants to focus on two things specifically this year: OS 3.0 and Snow Leopard.
I’ve heard some pretty raving things about OS 3.0 and I think it’ll basically put the Pre under. As my friend Richard said: “It has hallmarks of a maturing OS.” I think 3.0 will pave the way for major upgrades in the future that will continue to exert iPhone hegemony. I also think that Apple, AT&T, et al will have a major announcement in regards to iPhone tethering. I can’t imagine that the big telcos would give away free data, but there might be some special pricing involved.
Of course, Snow Leopard is a much needed upgrade. Computing trends are changing and OS X needs to keep up. I agree with Gruber on the fact that OS X seems to be the foundation of Apple’s business for the foreseeable future. Just the other day I was joking about how crappy it’s going to be when Apple has to use OS XI—it just doesn’t have the same ring to it.
As far as a tablet goes: No. Well, at least not yet and probably not in any of the current hypothesized form factors. I think Apple will do with the tablet what it does best: revolutionize.
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Nicely written piece. I also read the post on Daring Fireball that you referenced and found it equally well rounded and insightful. I think that we will find that Mr. Gruber is not too far off on any of his predictions. He very rarely is.
One thing that I would take issue with however is this business of a 2 year product cycle as it relates to the iPhone and any of its future incantations. Primarily because I don’t see the stated goal of the iPhone product line being remotely connected to that of apple computing as a whole.
The strategy of the apple/ macintosh line thus far has been to build an elitist brand that appeals to a growing, but still very particular set of consumers. They have a bulletproof consumer/ fan base of militant kool-aid drinkers, in the eyes of whom apple can and does no wrong.
The iPhone, like the iPod before it is not for “mac people” and in my opinion the goal isn’t sustainable growth and galvanization, it is the domination of an entire industry. Mobile markets have proven themselves to be the epitome of short attention spans and radical release schedules. I think that after being able to observe the trends and the markets for nearly 2 decades before launch, Jobs and co. aren’t going to miss that.
Until contenders, worthy or not, stop stepping up to the plate– your RIMs, Palms, Ericksons, HTCs, etc. I don’t think that any company including apple can succeed by resting in any fashion. Ask Motorola. The mobile market is just too fickle and amazed by all things shiny and new.
You raise valid points, but given Apple’s trend and apparent philosophies, I’m sticking to my predictions. I guess we’ll see how close I was in a few hours . . .
Talk about…